Brexit Update: Illegal Prorogation
The Supreme Court ruling that Boris Johnson’s prorogation of Parliament for 5 weeks is null and void merely confirms that chaotic nature – Brexit is the gift that keeps on giving. However, the Establishment is clearly on the ascendant. It seems Boris Johnson’s prize beyond whatever happens on 31st October (most probably an extension until January), is to be the leader of the disposessed in the Wilderness.
The Opposition Parties are united on blocking a no-deal Brexit, but cannot agree on how to do this, while the Brexit parties desperate for a no-deal Brexit are at war: for example, Nigel Farage hates Dominic Cummings.
My original post on Brexit predicted chaos and confusion. Several years down the road we find ourselves still in that chaos and confusion. We have a minority government with a charismatic and divisive Prime Minister notorious for his dishonesty and disloyalty, who continuously plotted to remove Theresa May. His demands loyalty are hollow. He packed the Cabinet with extreme Brexiteers.
While contempt for the law and due Parliamentary process during the Brexit process, are the norm, prorogation is a clear sign of desperation. We are becoming a rogue state.
No Deal Brexit 2019
A no deal Brexit is the logical conclusion, for Boris Johnson and many of his current Cabinet colleagues voted against their own government deal brokered by Theresa May. Boris has no new ideas on solving the Backstop, and he has no chance of satisfying the ERG or UKIP. It is the electorate that has to be punished.
The UK has always had an extremely weak hand in its negotiating tactics with the EU, which would always protect its member states, particularly Eireland. Given the disengenous and unstable nature of the British Government (it lost the Tory Leader of Lords and the Tory Leader of the Conservatives on the day prorogation was announced), trade negotiations with other countries would not be worth the paper they were written on.
The EU is not stupid. They can see that leaving on 31st October with a No Deal, by a completely unrepresentive Government in the midst of a General Election as a negotiating tactic hardly gives confidence.
The Tory party in power for so long needs a scapegoat for their failed policies. Foreigners are an easy target. What happened to Islamic extremism? The Conservatives stood for power, stability and business interests, but apart from a power grab (Boris Johnson: “Fuck Business”), they now stand for instability and chaos. An external enemy, real or imaginary, is the classic means for uniting a group, but the sense of betrayal and factional groups within the Conservative Party gives little hope that they will unite even when we leave the EU.
Recent events seem similar to rise of the Nazis in Germany, but to me it feels like we are in the last days of The Bunker.
Brexit 2019 prediction
We have a weak minority, divided, extremist Government, and a weak divided extremist Opposition Party. Neither know what to do. An election would be the best outcome, but Boris seems to be using that as a smokescreen to exit the UK.